The NFT Market Today: Cycles, Surviving Projects, and What's Next

What you'll learn

• Where the Market Actually Stands in 2026
• The Hard Numbers — From $25B Mania to $5-6B Steady State
• Who Survived — And Who Did Not
• The Bitcoin Surprise — Ordinals and Runes
• Token Bound Accounts and the Quiet Gaming Revival
• SocialFi, Music NFTs, and the Brand NFT Graveyard
• The Royalty Wars — Final Score
• Forecasting the Next Cycle
• For Deeper Reading

Key terms

NFT winter

The 2022-2023 collapse of NFT prices and trading volumes, during which the average NFT sale price fell from approximately $3,894 in May 2022 to ~$293 in February 2023 (a ~92% drop). Marketplaces, projects, and many holders did not survive.

Floor price

The lowest currently listed price for any NFT in a collection. Bored Ape Yacht Club's floor peaked at ~128 ETH (~$354K) on May 1, 2022 and fell to ~13.4 ETH (~$40K) by May 2024 — a roughly 90% decline.

Bitcoin Ordinals

A protocol introduced by Casey Rodarmor in January 2023 that lets users inscribe arbitrary data (images, text, video, software) directly into individual satoshis on Bitcoin. Each inscription is identified by an ordinal number derived from the satoshi's mining order. Fully on-chain on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Runes

A fungible-token protocol designed by Casey Rodarmor that launched alongside the Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024 (block height 840,000). The launch produced one of the largest single-day Bitcoin transaction events in history (~753,584 transactions, average fee ~$127.97).

NODE Foundation

The Infinite Node Foundation, a nonprofit endowment co-founded by Micky Malka and Becky Kleiner of Ribbit Capital, that acquired the CryptoPunks IP from Yuga Labs for approximately $20 million on May 12, 2025. Backed by a $25M endowment, with plans for a permanent CryptoPunks exhibition in Palo Alto.

BUIDL / BENJI / Ondo

BlackRock's tokenized money-market fund (BUIDL, $2B+ AUM since March 2024), Franklin Templeton's comparable product (BENJI, ~$1.98B AUM), and Ondo Finance's OUSG/USDY products. The dominant tokenized-Treasury products in 2025-2026 and a major reason institutional capital has not flowed back into NFT speculation.

Friend.tech

A SocialFi protocol on Coinbase's Base L2, launched August 2023. Generated $2M+ daily fees at peak in September 2023; collapsed to <$21 in 30-day fees by September 2024. Developers transferred control to a null address on September 8, 2024 with reportedly ~$44M in accumulated fees, becoming the canonical SocialFi failure case.

Starbucks Odyssey

A Polygon-based NFT loyalty program launched by Starbucks in December 2022 and shut down on March 31, 2024 (announced March 15, 2024). Cited as the canonical case study in why brand-NFT collectible activations have largely failed in the post-mania market.

LVMH AURA

A blockchain-based supply-chain provenance consortium founded by LVMH with Prada, Cartier, Mercedes-Benz and others. The most consistently active "brand NFT" deployment in 2026, but as B2B authentication/provenance infrastructure rather than consumer collectibles.

Magic Eden refocus (Feb 27, 2026)

On February 27, 2026, Magic Eden CEO Jack Lu announced the company would shut down its Bitcoin Ordinals, Runes, and EVM marketplaces, sunset its multi-chain wallet, and refocus on its Solana marketplace and a new gambling product (Dicey). Major signal that Bitcoin-native NFT trading had cooled below sustainable operating costs.

Royalty collapse

The 2022-2024 decline of marketplace-enforced creator royalties from a 2021 default expectation (5-10% of secondary volume) to roughly 0-5% in 2026, driven by Blur's zero-fee/optional-royalty model, OpenSea abandoning the Operator Filter (effective August 31, 2023; final February 29, 2024), and the rise of AMM-style royalty-free venues.

Cycle theory (NFT context)

The observation that NFT speculation has historically peaked late in broader Bitcoin cycles (2021 followed the May 2020 halving; the next theoretical peak followed April 2024 halving but has been muted). Useful as a rough timing heuristic, dangerous as a guarantee.