Galaxy Study Finds 69% of Retail Polymarket Traders Lost Money

WHY IT MATTERS

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on whether certain events will happen — for example, who will win an election or whether a certain economic report will come in above or below expectations. Think of them like a stock market, but instead of buying shares in a company, you are buying a contract that pays out if your prediction is correct. Polymarket is one of the most well-known prediction markets in crypto. This study suggests that most everyday users on the platform end up losing money, similar to how studies have shown that most day traders in traditional stock markets also lose money. For anyone new to crypto or prediction markets, this is a reminder that these platforms involve significant financial risk, and participating is not the same as guaranteed profit.