Audit Finds Betting on Polymarket Primary Favorites Would Have Lost 4 Percent

WHY IT MATTERS

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on whether something will happen, like who will win an election. Think of them like a stock market, but instead of buying shares in a company, you are buying shares in an outcome. The price of those shares reflects what the crowd thinks the probability of that outcome is. This audit found that if you always bet on the candidate the crowd thought was most likely to win in primary elections, you would have actually lost money. This is important because prediction markets are often discussed as being smarter than polls or pundits, but this analysis suggests they are not always perfectly priced, at least in the context of primary races.